Reality Check on Earth2Tech’s Top 10 Cleantech Predictions for 2009

January 24, 2009 at 4:45 pm

Katie Fehrenbacher, droping a line on Earth2Tech , is one of the most fertile of the cleantech journalists. She accumulated this week their 2009 top 10 cleantech predictions. Hither’s my take, deserving the electronic paper it’s published on, of what she paid back right, incorrect, “duh, of course”, and most downplayed. Simply for fun, of course, Katie’s one of my most favourite bloggers.

1) U.S. Union Policy On Climate Change Will Displace Tardily:

In all probability. But the end of 2009 in Copenhagen is all the same a polar point for the orbicular climate change framework, so we have to catch our act in concert to represent ball.

2) Oil Prices Will Stay put Low For Much of the Year, Potentially Climbing in Q4 of 2009:

Confessedly entirely if you trust that oil prices in the $30s are depleted. I befall not to. $15 is low-toned. $40 is high-pitched. $140 is ridiculously high-pitched. Oil has been essentially deflationary for 30+ years, with just now a blip waiting flat in existent terms the last couple. And the heavy variable is GDP growth. No economical recovery, no oil price stablization, permit solo rear. I don”t buy that OPEC will stop the slide over the next couple of quarters either. And I don”t buy a Q4 climb.

3) Next Generation of Biofuels on the Backburner:

Only if you believe they were ever on the front burner. I’ve been blogging this siren’s song for years.

4) Gullible Buildings are Smart Spot:

In all likelihood a well call. It is raising, but is it magnanimous enough to be a hopeful spot?

5) Utilities Turn to Energy Efficiency Programs:

Utilities ALWAYS turn to energy efficiency programs, they precisely ne’er appear to attain scale. But we can go for. My hope is demand side energy efficienciy causes included in our cap and trade scheme.

6) Low-spirited Skies for Traditional Solar PV:

I differ. In a year when companies are covering descending sales, solar will stock-still be a way outperfomer. But we should encounter margins squeezed as the industry gets wind that it (gasp!) real is a to a great extent subsidised very cyclic business when supply growth runs across subsidy weakness and economical turmoil.

7) Infotech Turns to Energy Efficiency to Save Cash:

Hmmmmh. With energy prices cratering? I could think some wind coming up out of these sails (or sales). But I’m not an expert on this one.

8) More Unripened Buildings? Yes. Emergence of the Chic Home? No more.:

Smart home is another of those siren’s songs. Overbold metering, all the same, is a goldmine, and simply at present coming into it’s ain. We’ll run into how it braves out the fiscal crisis.

9) Public Perceptions of Light-green to Suit More Dig:

How around, the public simply stops to like? We’ll see out just now how much of a luxury item “green” rattling is. My personal benchmark hither is random chats with Erik Blachford, CEO of Terrapass , the runing retailer of carbon credits. His last prognosis – green may be a bit more of a luxury item than antecedently awaited. But we can go for. And I’ll keep open requiring Erik.

10) Light-green Investors Plump Buttoned-down Or Threefold Down:

Come up people, energy is STILL the largest industry out in that respect. When energy prices are cratering it’s time to grease one’s palms. Just now break off buying into the gamyest cost producer (like next gen biofuels :)) of the most “out in that location” technology at venture prices. But render evidencing that to Sandhill Road.

Neal Dikeman is a partner at Jane Capital Partners LLC, the Chairman and Constituting CEO of Carbonflow , Inc., edits the Cleantech Blog and Chairs .

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